Corso pisa-2 dh-2017

transcript

Digital Humanities | Pisa febbraio-aprile 2017 | Luca De Biase

2. Futuro How to be humans in the digital age

http://blog.debiase.com

8:30 - 10:00 10:15 - 11:45 12:00 - 13:30 14:15 - 15:45 16:00 - 17:30 17:45 - 19:15

24 febbraio x x x

2 marzo x x x

3 marzo x x

23 marzo x x x

24 marzo x x

6 aprile x x x

7 aprile x x

DIGITAL soluzioni power law moore’s law shannon fogg & co.

infosfera

futuro

innovazione

felicità

piattaforma

conoscenza

diritti

HUMAN domande discernimento narrazione responsablità ricerca

infosfera 24 febbraio

futuro 2 marzo

innovazione 3 marzo

felicità 23 marzo

piattaforma 24 marzo

conoscenza 6 aprile

diritti 7 aprile

infosfera digitalizzazione polarizzazione esponenziale algoritmo nicchia

futuro shift pattern senso evoluzione arte & scienza

innovazione immaginazione abilitazione selezione sperimentazione adozione

felicità ecologia fini & mezzi ambiente relazioni cultura

piattaforma interfaccia codice filtro motivazione incentivo

conoscenza valore verità metodo contesto design

diritti privacy accesso interoperabilità neutralità sicurezza

Che cosa sappiamoPerché è importante

Che cosa possiamo fare

https://mitpress.mit.edu/sites/default/files/titles/content/9780262018470_Open_Access_Edition.pdf

Oggi e domani parliamo di:

❖ futuro

❖ innovazione

Oggi e domani parliamo di:

❖ come si organizza la conoscenza per pensare il futuro

❖ come si organizza la conoscenza per fare innovazione

Data science is an interdisciplinary and pervasive paradigm aiming to turn data into knowledge and value. Data may be structured or unstructured, big or small, static or streaming. Knowledge and value may be provided in the form of predictions, automated decisions, models learned from data, or any type of data visualization delivering insights. Data science includes data extraction, data preparation, data exploration, data transformation, storage and retrieval, computing infrastructures, various types of data mining and statistical learning, presentation of explanations and predictions, and the exploitation of results taking into account ethical, social, legal, and business aspects.

Data science emerged due to three concurring factors, unleashed by the digital transformation of society: a) the advent of Big Data; b) the advances in data analysis and learning techniques; and c) the advances in scalable high-performance computing infrastructures. The three factors together are an explosive mix: big data provide the critical mass of factual examples to learn from; analytics are able to learn predictive models and behavioral patterns from these data; scalable computing platforms make to ingest the data and perform the analytics feasible in practice.

Digital Humanities | Pisa febbraio-aprile 2017 | Luca De Biase

Il futuro “We shape our buildings; thereafter they shape us”.

Winston Churchill

per decidere ci facciamo un’idea del futuro

possiamo leggere i fatti come finestre per conoscere il futuro?

Cassie, robot bipede di Agility Robotics, spin-off dell’Oregon State University.http://www.futurix.it/2017/02/cassie-robot-levoluzione-della-specie_78.html

alcuni fatti parlano di futuro in modo più evidente degli altri

il futuro sta cambiando

Shift happens❖ Deep Knowledge Ventures hires Vital,

an algorithm, for the board❖ Narrative sciences writes financial

articles for Forbes with no human involvement

❖ Watson, IBM, is better than most physicians in reading medical analysis

❖ A self-driving car, by Alphabet Google, has not been responsible of any accidents after 3 millions miles on the road (there have been 17 small accidents caused by cars that were driven by humans)

Shift happens

❖ Digital technologies have taken most of human information recording

❖ The web has changed a lot of industries (music, news, tourism, banks, and counting)

❖ But a lot more is coming

Shift happens❖ Big data

❖ Robotics

❖ Nanotechnology

❖ Biotechnology

❖ Neuro-science

❖ Particle physics

❖ Additive production

❖ Artificial intelligence

❖ Collective intelligence

❖ Sharing economy

❖ Climate change

❖ Space exploration

❖ Startups

❖ Bitcoin

A robot suitcase which follows you is made by the

Israeli startup NUA Robotics. It is full of sensors, computer

vision and robotics

Lily is a drone that follows you whereever you go and takes pictures or movies about everything you do

Teslasuit is a virtual reality device for full immersion

experiences

–Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, Oxford University

“According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk”.

THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO.COMPUTERISATION?

http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

Edward Snowden revealedwhat the Us mass surveillance

program is doing to the net

❖ sei un cittadino o un lavoratore preoccupato del futuro?

❖ sei interessato al futuro per migliorare i tuoi progetti?

❖ stai cercando opportunità nel contesto del Big Shift?

come guardiamo avanti?

Le previsioni sono difficili quando i cambiamenti sono profondi

–The Economist

“L’economia è la scienza che studia perché le sue previsioni non si sono avverate”.

Che cosa succederà?

❖ Che cosa sappiamo di non sapere?

❖ Che cosa non sappiamo di non sapere?

❖ Siamo influenzati da ciò che vogliamo?

❖ Siamo influenzati da ciò che speriamo?

❖ Siamo influenzati dal pregiudizio?

❖ Abbiamo bisogno di una migliore comprensione del futuro per migliorare i nostri progetti?

Abbiamo bisogno di un’epistemologia

❖ Fare la Domanda

❖ Cercare nel mondo

❖ Mappare le possibilità;

❖ fare la prossima Domanda

Jamais Cascio, futuris, Futures Thinking: The Basicshttp://www.fastcompany.com/1362037/futures-thinking-basics

Abbiamo bisogno di un’epistemologia

❖ The Dragon - what we know that we don’t know

❖ The Black Swan - what we know doesn’t fit the theory

❖ The Mule - what we don’t know that we don’t know

Jamais Cascio, futuris, Futures Thinking: The Basicshttp://www.fastcompany.com/1362037/futures-thinking-basics

Abbiamo bisogno di una strategia

❖ Non c’è una possibile previsione: è possibile definire una strategia per costruire sistemi anti-fragili

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan, 2007Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Home Page: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com

Two quotes form Taleb’s new book: “Rationality is avoidance of systemic ruin.”And “Rationality is indistinguishable from precaution.”

Che cosa possiamo dire del futuro?

–Everybody knows that

“Il futuro è la conseguenza di ciò che facciamo”.

How we decide?

❖ Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Penguin, 2013

How we decide?

❖ We usually go with the first idea that comes to our mind

❖ Reasoning is rare❖ The first idea, intuition, comes

for repeated messages, deep rooted ideas, culture, prejudice and other things

❖ Some intuitive decisions are made in terms of the way we look at the future

❖ We decide by intuition

❖ What we decide builds the future

❖ Sometimes there is reasoning, most of the times not

❖ The ideas we have about the future shape in some ways our decision making

❖ The ideas we have about the future shape the future

La prima legge degli studi sul futuro…

–Institute for the Future

“There are no facts in the future, only narratives”

Narrative

Narratives

❖ Financial❖ Technological❖ Ecological

Narratives

❖ This is where humanities and techno-science collide and generate what we are - for now - calling: digital humanities

❖ Both science and arts are a sort of research in unknown territories

❖ They just use different tools. And they should be talking more between each other

Narratives

Financial values

The only judge is the market value, which in turn is defined by future ability to make profits. This means, for example, that if humans cost too much, they will be replaced by robots. This means that if a startup has more financial backing it will win on every competing idea. Because the best is the financially healthier. The rest is secondary.

Narratives

Techno-progress

What works wins. There are laws in technological progress which allow us to understand what will happen. The Moore’s law commands on all of them. And it describes the future in terms of exponential explosion of the power of computing. Which will extend to every digitally powered machine. Exponential growth is inevitable. Resistance is futile.

Narratives

Ecological stories

Everything is interconnected. Phenomena coevolve. There is a plurality of life forms and the more there are the better for the health of the environment. Pollution happens when consumption of resources exceeds the generation of resources. Every species growth arrives to its limits. Every mutation looks for its niche. Equilibrium is in diversity.

Narratives create a perspective

❖ People need to choose and a narrative creates an idea of what a choice will bring

❖ Storytelling can be a sort of manipulation of the will of people

❖ Freedom is consciousness about the narrative we think we live in

–Carlo Goldoni

“I cannot write what is true, because if I did nobody would believe me.

Thus, I write what is likely”.

Narratives need to be credible

❖ If people experience a life that is defined by a narrative, they are brought to think that the narrative is the truth

❖ If a narrative is shared by the vast majority and is not challenged, it tends to become self-fulfilling

❖ People live in an environment which is build by its architects with a narrative in mind

Future thinking readings:

❖ Al Gore, The future, WH Allen, 2013

❖ James Canton, The extreme future, Dutton, 2006

❖ Joel Garreau, Radical evolution, Broadway Books, 2005

❖ Age of networked matter. http://www.iftf.org/aonm/

❖ Future visions. http://news.microsoft.com/futurevisions/

❖ Fantascienza come racconto del futuro http://blog.debiase.com/2016/01/15/fantascienza-come-racconto-del-futuro/

❖ FUTURES THINKING: THE BASICS

❖ http://www.fastcompany.com/1362037/futures-thinking-basics

❖ FUTURES THINKING: ASKING THE QUESTION

❖ http://www.fastcompany.com/1413317/futures-thinking-asking-question

❖ FUTURES THINKING: SCANNING THE WORLD

❖ http://www.fastcompany.com/1470137/futures-thinking-scanning-world

❖ FUTURES THINKING: A BIBLIOGRAPHY

❖ http://www.fastcompany.com/1617780/futures-thinking-bibliography

Future thinking readings:❖ Future timelinehttp://futuretimeline.net

❖ How to see into the future. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/3950604a-33bc-11e4-ba62-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3zPYJLR8D

❖ CHAMP● Comparisons are important: use relevant comparisons as a starting point; ● Historical trends can help: look at history unless you have a strong reason to expect change; ● Average opinions: experts disagree, so find out what they think and pick a midpoint; ● Mathematical models: when model-based predictions are available, you should take them into account; ● Predictable biases exist and can be allowed for. Don’t let your hopes influence your forecasts, for example; don’t stubbornly cling to old forecasts in the face of news.

If we think the future as narratives:

❖ We don’t know the future, we just build it, by acting now and generating consequences

❖ We act now by thinking in a way that is understandable in terms of narratives

❖ The future is not the future of technology: it is a mix of scientific, technological and humanistic knowledge

–Tom Perrault, Harvard Business Review

“But there will be a limit to how far computers can replace humans. What can’t be replaced in any

organization imaginable in the future is precisely what seems overlooked today: liberal arts skills, such as creativity, empathy, listening, and vision. These skills, not digital or technological ones, will

hold the keys to a company’s future success.”.

Digital Companies Need More Liberal Arts Majorshttps://hbr.org/2016/01/digital-companies-need-more-liberal-arts-majors

It’s what happens in the info-sphere

❖ The info-sphere is no abstract notion: it is build of nature, cables, platforms, information, knowledge, networks, social relations, algorithms…

❖ The info-sphere evolves by projects and failures, visions and experiments, startups and mega-companies, software and hardware, power and critics.

❖ Innovation is the name of the game. And it shows some evolutionary patterns

Corso pisa-2 dh-2017

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