Cambiamenti Climatici: Evidenze Scientifiche Globali ed Effetti sulla Regione Euro-Mediterranea
Silvio Gualdi
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
“IL CLIMA CHE CAMBIA: cambiamenti climatici, impatti e politiche climatiche in italia”
#climatechange, #climachecambia, #greeneconomy
27 novembre 2015, Auditorium Santa Margherita, Ca’ Foscari, Venezia
Global Trends
Direct observations
European Environment Agency, 2015 Indicator Assessment | Data and maps
Direct observations
Each line represents an independently derived estimate of change in the climate element.
Multiple complementary indicators of a changing global climate
IPCC WG1-AR5
Global Trends
Attribution: Disentangling the human influence from natural variability
IPCC WG1-AR4
Global Trends
IPCC WG1-AR5
Scenarios and Projections
EMISSIONS
CONCENTRATIONS
IPCC scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions and concentrations (used to perform the IPCC climate projections)
Modified from IPCC WG1-AR5
Global Projections
Annual mean surface air temperature change compared to the 1986-2005 reference period
RCP8.5 2045-2065 RCP8.5 2081-2100
Modified from IPCC WG1-AR5
2046-2065 DJF 2081-2100 DJF
2046-2065 JJA 2081-2100 JJA
Seasonal mean Precipitation change (RCP8.5) compared to the 1986-2005 reference period
Global Projections
Projected changes (wrt 1981-2000) in annual maximum five-day precipitation and of maximum number of consecutive dry days
Modified from IPCC WG1-AR5
Change in Precipitation Extremes
Global Projections
Annual precipitation is generally projected to increase in northern Europe and to decrease in southern Europe. Projected decrease is the strongest in southern Europe in summer.
Focus on the European Continent
Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) in the period 2071-2100 compared to the baseline period 1971-2000 for the forcing scenario RCP 8.5. Model simulations are based on the multi-model ensemble average of RCM simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative.
Projected Mean Precipitation Change
http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/
Projected Heavy Precipitation Change
Focus on the European Continent
Adapted from D. Jacob, C3S workshop, Reading 2015
Focus on the European Continent
Projected Mean Temerature Change
http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/
Projected changes in near-surface air temperature (°C) in the period 2071-2100 compared to the baseline period 1971-2000 for the forcing scenarios RCP 8.5 (Data source EURO-CORDEX).
Heat waves are projected to become more frequent and last longer across Europe during this century (Fischer and Schär 2010, IPCC 2013, Russo et al. 2014)
Projected changes in Temperature Extremes
Focus on the European Continent
Trends in Warm Days (Tmax > 90%) Trends in Cold Nights (Tmin > 10%)
http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/
Athens Case Study: heat-waves
(Goodess et al 2013)
Focus on the European Continent
Uncertainty
GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
Knutti & Janek 2012
RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF DIFFERENT UNCERTAINTIES
Modified from IPCC WG1-AR5
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations.
Most of the observed warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
Continued greenhouse gas emissions would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century.
The 21st century climate change would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century with substantial impacts on human societies and ecosystems primarily through changes in the water cycle.
Summary and Conclusions
Extreme events such as heavy precipitation and heat wave events are likely to increase in most parts of Europe.
During the period 1980-2012 parts of Europe experienced extreme heat-waves (summers of 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2010). Such heat waves are projected to become the norm in the second half of the 21st century under high forcing scenario (RCP8.5).
Grazie