Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica
EURO LM - Case studiesEURO LM - Case studies
Langen, 8th March 2006
LT.Col. Teodoro La Rocca, Maj. Alessandro Fuccello
CONTENT
1th Case-study: Confluence Lines situation (3 October 2005)
2nd Case-study: Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) (21 October 2005)
3rd Case-study: Tropopause anomaly Cyclogenesis ( 23 February 2006) over Jonian Sea
Confluence lines
Cold Front
FI by jet
1st Case-study Confluence Lines situation
(3 October 2005)
Confluence lines
Confluence lines
FI by jet
Comma
Interpretation of precipitations(EURO-LM Model)
Based on Conceptual Models
Precipitations cumulated in 24 hours
Low rainfall overestimationEURO-LM locates well FI by jet
High precipitation overestimationdue to orographic effect. Model dynamic is good
Strong convection line produces heavy rain well forecsted in intensity but not so in the spaceDynamics very good (Cold Front and pre-frontal Confluence Lines )
HRV VIS at 07 utc
HRV VIS at 12 utc HRV VIS at 15 utc
2nd case - study
Mesoscale Convective System (MCS)
(21 October 2005)
21 OCTOBER 00 UTC Num. FC: Wind and pressure distribution
T+12 T+15 T+18
Interpretation of precipitationsBased on Conceptual Models
MCSs
Rainfall overstimation Dynamics good (MCS) but evolution and path were wrong
Precipitations cumulated in 24 hours
Tropopause anomaly
Cyclogenesis
over
Jonian Sea
33rd rd case - study (23 February 2006) case - study (23 February 2006)
Heavy rain
Forecasted
Over
Mid-adriatic Area,
Calabria and Eastern Sicily
22 February 2006 – EURO LM
23 February 2006 – EURO LM
Rainfall
Observed
Over
Mid-adriatic Area
(good estimation)
Calabria and Eastern Sicily
(over-estimation)
CONCLUSIONS
•Test case – studies discussed indicate good performances in EURO LM and LAMI precipitation forecasts related to dynamic synoptic patterns.
• Problems arise in case of rainfall due to Mesoscale convective activity, mainly in the location of precipitation area.
•Conceptual models seem to be promising for the interpretation and for the discussion of the results obtained by LM.
Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica
QUESTIONS ?
PLEASE, CONTACT
LT.Col Teodoro LA ROCCA [email protected] Maj. Alessandro FUCCELO [email protected]
T.Col. Teodoro La Rocca, Magg. Alessandro Fuccello